Cost Optimization of Preventive Maintenance Using an Integer Linear Programming Approach Based on RCA and Markov Chain

(1) * Rino Indriyanto Mail (Industrial Engineering and Management, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, Indonesia)
(2) Maria Ulfah Mail (Industrial Engineering and Management, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, Indonesia)
(3) Ratna Ekawati Mail (Industrial Engineering and Management, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa University, Indonesia)
*corresponding author

Abstract


In 2024, the canned slurry pump at PT. X experienced 38 failure events, resulting in a total downtime of 105 hours and maintenance costs of IDR 3,193,283,735 due to the absence of a preventive maintenance program. This study proposes an integrated preventive maintenance optimization framework combining Root Cause Analysis (RCA), Markov Chain modeling, and Integer Linear Programming (ILP). RCA identifies six dominant failure causes accounting for 89.5% of total failures, which are used to define machine condition states in the Markov Chain model for estimating expected maintenance costs and predicting system behavior. The proposed maintenance policy (P?) reduces the average expected maintenance cost from IDR 333,486,618 to IDR 187,820,157, corresponding to a reduction of 43.68%. This value yields the most economical annual expected maintenance cost of IDR 1,798,000,000 and is subsequently applied as a cost constraint in the ILP model. The optimization results show that preventive maintenance for 10 pump units in 2025 can be implemented at a total cost of IDR 1,701,000,000 while generating an estimated profit of IDR 1,520,000,000. The results demonstrate that the proposed integrated approach enables effective and cost-efficient preventive maintenance decision-making, supported by the formulation of standardized working instructions in accordance with company standards.


Keywords


Canned Slurry Pump, Integer Linear Programming (ILP), Markov Chain, Preventive Maintenance, Root Cause Analysis (RCA).

   

DOI

https://doi.org/10.29099/ijair.v10i1.1649
      

Article metrics

10.29099/ijair.v10i1.1649 Abstract views : 122 | PDF views : 16

   

Cite

   

Full Text

Download

References


F. W. Astuti, A. Mail, and T. Alisyahbana, “Maintenance Planning of Circulation Water Pump (CWP) Using the Markov Chain Method to Minimize Costs,” Industrial Engineering and Management, pp. 69–75, 2023.

G. Feldle, “Canned Motor Pumps in Compliance with API 685 – A Contribution to Environmental Protection,” Proceedings on Canned Motor Pumps, 2002.

H. Rahman, “Bibliometric analysis of the development of policy innovation research in Indonesia,” Journal of Policy Innovation, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 37–48, 2023.

A. Burak, L. Prokopchak, S. Che, D. Barth, B. Haugh, D. Holcomb, K. Robb, V. Rojas, S. Zhang, and X. Sun, “Root cause analysis of a molten salt pump in FLUSTFA,” Nuclear Engineering and Design, vol. 444, Art. no. 114365, 2025.

Syakhroni et al., “Machine Maintenance Design Using Markov Chain Method to Reduce Maintenance Costs,” IEEE International Journal of Education, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1–20, 2021.

G. A. Kechagias, A. C. Diamantidis, T. D. Dimitrakos, and M. Tsakalerou, “Optimal Maintenance of Deteriorating Equipment Using Semi-Markov Decision Processes and Linear Programming,” International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 81–95, 2024.

M. Hossein, M. Saber, M. Saleh, and H. Khademi, “A Method for Analyzing Maintenance Decisions Based on the Discrete Markov Chain,” Management and Production Engineering Review, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 1–7, 2024.

A. S. K. Romadhon and A. Trimarjoko, “Markov chain method in decision implementation of preventive maintenance scheduling to reduce equipment downtime in PT. ADF Indonesia: A case study,” Indonesian Journal of Industrial Engineering & Management (IJIEM), vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 183–191, 2024.

A. Anastasia, “Stochastic Markov chain model for maintenance planning of a high-pressure boiler feed pump at PT. XYZ,” Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Surabaya, Indonesia, 2021.

A. Sánchez-Herguedas, F. Rodrigo-Muñoz, A. Mena-Nieto, and A. Crespo-Márquez, “Finite-time preventive maintenance optimization using a semi-Markov process with a degraded state: A case study of diesel engines in mining,” Computers & Industrial Engineering, vol. 190, Art. no. 110083, 2024.

A. N. Rouf and K. Muhammad, “Analysis of improvement in writing the list of materials for preservation programs using the root cause analysis (RCA) method,” JUSTI (Journal of Industrial Systems and Engineering), vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 452–459, 2023.

M. A. Sitompul, “Implementation of root cause analysis (RCA) to control reject rates of NP project products at PT. XYZ,” Journal of Manufacturing in Industrial Engineering and Technology (MINE-TECH), vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 83–92, 2024.

H.-Y. Liao, W. Cade, and S. Behdad, “Markov chain optimization of repair and replacement decisions of medical equipment,” Resources, Conservation & Recycling, vol. 171, p. 105609, 2021.

S. M. Ross, Introduction to Probability Models, 10th ed., Amsterdam, Netherlands: Academic Press, 2010.

V. P. Koutras, “A Markov regenerative process model for the dependability and performance of a two-unit multi-state system under maintenance,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol. 238, p. 109433, 2023.

M. H. Habibi, Sutrisno, and A. Jibril, “Analysis of mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) of cold storage machines,” J-CEKI: Jurnal Cendekia Ilmiah, vol. 4, no. 4, 2025.

D. D’Urso, A. Sinatra, L. Compagno, and F. Chiacchio, “Assessment of the optimal preventive maintenance period using stochastic hybrid modelling,” Procedia Computer Science, vol. 200, pp. 1664–1673, 2022.

D. Q. Arifin and E. Aryanny, “Optimization of determining maintenance intervals with the Markov chain method to minimize maintenance costs in PT. BBI,” Journal of Industrial Engineering Management (JIEM), vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 141–150, 2022.

A. O. Omondi, I. A. Lukandu, and G. Wanyembi, “Probabilistic Reasoning and Markov Chains to Improve Performance under Uncertainty,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 99–108, 2021.

G. Pérez-Lechuga, F. Venegas-Martínez, and F. J. Martínez-Sánchez, “Mathematical Modeling of Manufacturing Lines Using a Markov Chain Approach,” Mathematics, vol. 9, no. 24, pp. 1–17, 2021.

M. S. Fallahnezhad, A. Ranjbar, and F. Z. Sredorahi, “A Markov Model for Production and Maintenance Decision,” Macro Management & Public Policies, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1–5, 2020.

G. Sierksma and Y. Zwols, Linear and Integer Optimization: Theory and Practice, 3rd ed., Boca Raton, FL, USA: CRC Press, 2015.

Roudnev and Loderer, Warman Slurry Pumping Handbook, 1972.

C. Scheffer, Practical Machinery Vibration Analysis and Predictive Maintenance, 1st ed., Oxford, UK: Elsevier, 2004.

T. Sukmono and M. S. Lesmana, “Implementation of the Markov chain method to minimize spiral machine maintenance costs,” Jurnal Teknik Industri, vol. 9, no. 1, p. 132, 2023.

Prastya and Ferdian, “Application of the Markov chain method in scheduling maintenance of Oerlikon machines,” Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 1–12, 2022.

M. R. Anggara, A. Apriana, et al., “Root cause analysis of mechanical seal failures in Nash 2BE1 202-0 vacuum pumps using the fishbone diagram method,” Proceedings of the National Seminar on Mechanical Engineering, pp. 1110–1119, 2021.

B. Wu, W. Wang, Z. Tan, and D. Ding, “Resilience modeling for discrete-time multi-state systems based on aggregated Markov chains,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol. 264, p. 111426, 2025.

Y. Feng, J. Gao, X. Yin, J. Chen, and X. Wu, “Risk assessment and simulation of gas pipeline leakage based on Markov chain theory,” Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, vol. 91, p. 105370, 2024.

G. Muscatello and T. Tolio, “A Markov chain-based approach to model the variance of times-to-failure and times-to-repair in manufacturing systems,” Procedia CIRP, vol. 130, pp. 1322–1326, 2024.

M. L. Gámiz, N. Limnios, and M. C. Segovia-García, “Hidden Markov models in reliability and maintenance,” European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 304, pp. 1242–1255, 2023.

X. Ji, M. Chen, Z. Pu, Y. Fu, T. Tao, and K. Xin, “Markov decision process–based value-chain calculation of water distribution network scheduling,” Water–Energy Nexus, vol. 7, pp. 13–25, 2024.




Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

________________________________________________________

The International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Organized by: Prodi Teknik Informatika Fakultas Teknologi Bisnis dan Sains
Published by: Universitas Dharma Wacana
Jl. Kenanga No. 03 Mulyojati 16C Metro Barat Kota Metro Lampung

Email: jurnal.ijair@gmail.com

View IJAIR Statcounter

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under  Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.